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  • Essay / Best Product Forecasting Methods - 575

    1. What is the best forecasting method for each product? The best forecasting method for each product depends on many factors: recent and past orders and sales of the stock/product. There are two ways of forecasting: quantitative and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods are typically used for new products or when there is little numerical data to incorporate into a forecast. The process included management judgments, sales force forecasts, surveys, and market testing. Quantitative methods include naive, moving average (MA), exponential smoothing, time series regression, etc. In general, forecasts are more accurate in the short term than in the long term. Naive Forecasting: The simplest time series forecasting model. The basic idea is that what happened last time (last year, last month, yesterday) will happen again this time. Moving Average (MA): Average of the specific number of periods to plan the next period. It must be recalculated often (monthly or at least quarterly) to reflect changes in the level of demand. Problems with the MA model: • The naive model is a special case of MA with n = 1 • The idea is to red...