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Essay / kbvh - 1727
According to Chuk (2012), there are three transmission mechanisms from the oil price shock to the macroeconomy, notably aggregate demand, aggregate supply and the structure of interest rates . In the aggregate supply mechanism, Morana (2013) realizes that the impact on producers can provide the explanation of business cycles related to oil price shocks and technology. This means that rising energy prices result in an imperfect market competition structure, in which firms' pricing of goods exceeds marginal cost. In an imperfectly competitive market structure, shocks to energy prices would lead to a reduction in the use of capital, leading to the conclusion that in the case where the transmission mechanism of oil into GDP is through the supply overall, the effects would be an increase in inflation. aggregate demand, Bjørnland (2008) explains how rising oil prices lead to a reduction in consumers' purchasing power, thereby reducing spending on products and services. In particular, Guidi (2010) indicates that an increase in the price of oil has a negative impact on production through the reduction in the consumption of sustainable products. Finally, Ushie, Adeniyi and Akongwale (2012) explain that in terms of In the structure of interest rates, the transmission mechanism is through the systematic response to monetary policy. A positive oil price shock tends to raise the public's inflationary expectations, steepen the Treasury yield curve, push up the government funds rate target, and ultimately slow economic growth. Economic fluctuations are therefore not considered to result directly from oil shocks. Although...... middle of article...... one such study was carried out by Umar and Abdulhakeem (2010) and focused on the effect of oil. price fluctuations in Nigeria. Using the VAR model, the results revealed that oil prices greatly affect GDP, unemployment and money supply, with the impact on the price index not considered significant. The conclusion is that given the volatility of the economy in the face of external shocks, macroeconomic performance is also volatile, thereby leading to difficulties in macroeconomic management. Even though the authors use the most supported VAR model in the literature, the researchers do not indicate whether the effect is negative or positive and whether the pointed volatility is only in the short term or extends to the long term. Additionally, the study does not cover more recent price movements that occurred during and after the financial crisis..